This is a popular belief in football, but doesn’t necessarily work in fantasy football.  Defense is often preached to be one of the later picks one should make and it is usually a successful strategy.  Defenses aren’t as unpredictable as kickers, but for the average fantasy football player, it often can be.  Less experienced fantasy football players don’t realize that every change a team makes impacts defense.  Last year, Baltimore was expected to be a top defense.  I had someone in a draft take them in the 6th round, so they could “complete their starting lineup” before taking backups.  Baltimore finished with a ranking below 20.  Could this have been predicted?  Were there any warning signs?  Yes, Adalius Thomas left the team, but there was still plenty of talent.  I do several things when taking a defense:

1) I don’t draft the projected elite.  Usually a squad that is projected to be a top defense has been for a couple of seasons.  This usually means the group is getting older, more injury prone, people are starting to figure them out, and I have to take them much earlier than I want to pick a defense, so they are riskier. Baltimore fit this category.

2) I don’t draft teams with bad offenses.  One of Baltimore’s issues last year was their offense was bad.
They didn’t get a lot of yards, they didn’t score a lot of points, and they turned the ball over a lot.
Giving the opposing team good field position hurts your defense.  Enough picking on Baltimore.

3) Pay attention to personnel changes or lack thereof.  This means coaching and players.

4) Beware of teams that rely on one player.  The Titans were horrible last year in games without Albert Haynesworth.  Defense should be one position where a major injury shouldn’t send you rushing to the free agent pool.

5) Don’t draft a defense based on special teams TDs.  Elite return men usually have a short shelf life.  If there is a mediocre or bad defense behind the 20-40 extra points an elite return guy may be able to get, there is a high risk that you may end up with just a mediocre to bad defense.  Consider special teams TDs an added bonus.

Devin Hester’s 6 special teams TDs last year made the Bears a top 5 defense.  A single player responsible for over 20% of the defensive points is not a good sign.  Without them, they wouldn’t have made the top 10, but they are still projected as an elite defense this year because of the results of the past few years.  The Bears have a bad offense losing their best receiver and not adding anyone on an aging defense that is somewhat disgruntled.  These are all warning signs and I wouldn’t be surprised if this projected top 5 defense is a major bust.

I’d rather wait a couple of rounds a take the Dallas Cowboys, a team that finished around 10th last year.  They have a very good offense.  They have added Zach Thomas at LB and Pacman Jones, who has had a troubled past, but if he gets over it, is a great CB and return man  They have also drafted Mike Jenkins at CB and Felix Jones, who was great return man in college.  A team that finished 10th, who has added depth, not lost any players, added 2 potential special teams threats to a team that had no special team TDs last year.  All signs for a defense on the rise and relatively free of risk.

One of the rule changes for the 2008 season was the elimination of the force out rule. Most of the controversy surrounding this rule had to do with the rule not being enforced when maybe it should have. Many say the absence of this call cost the Browns a playoff berth last year when Kellen Winslow was forced out in the end zone against the Cardinals and it was not called.

This year the rule won’t be called at all, so a receiver must get both feet inbounds. The force out rule also was not a reviewable play, so now all plays that are questionable can be reviewed. According to Mike Pereira, director of officiating for the NFL, the rule was called 16 times in 2007, so does this really affect fantasy wide receivers and quarterbacks?

Obviously, as many as 16 catches could have been considered incomplete because the receiver didn’t get both feet inbounds.  I say “as many as” because on some of the 16, the receiver still could have gotten both feet in despite the call.  So this is pretty insignificant, right? Maybe not.

Looking closer, how many times would a defender have held up on hitting a receiver on a sideline pass where he thought the receiver might not get both feet inbounds? If the defender hit the receiver to ensure the receiver would go out of bounds, the force out rule could be called.  This will no longer be a concern and defenders may now be more aggressive on the sidelines or in the back of the end zone.

I think this could do a couple of things. It could force receivers inside more shrinking the field a little. It could also reduce the number of goal line passes and increase the number of running plays in this area. Therefore, it could start to reverse the QB/WR trend that is occurring.

Am I crazy to think this could impact a little more than 16 catches, actually changing game plans and giving defenses more of an edge against the pass?

Everyone has these and I’m not talking about the 4th receiver on the Ravens, I mean consensus top picks that you know you will never take that high. It could be you don’t believe the hype, injury or legal (league punishment) issues scare you off, or you’ve been burned by a guy before and are holding a grudge. This last one isn’t something you should do, but it happens, a lot. I used the Average Draft Position (ADP) for a 12 team league over at Fantasy Football Calculator, which is a cool site everyone should check out. Below are 4 guys who on average are going in the first two rounds of drafts that I won’t draft this year.

1. Tom Brady (ADP 6.5) - Despite the trends in the league, I am still a RB first and usually second type of guy. The Patriots were explosive in the first half of the year and still put up phenomenal numbers in the second half, but people started figuring things out. Now they’ve had an off-season to work with. Brady’s numbers won’t be repeated, Peyton and Marino didn’t repeat and neither will Brady. If you return him to 30TD or so, he is still outstanding, but I could never take him in the 1st round.
2. Randy Moss (ADP 8.2) - For many of the same reasons as Tom Brady. Also, remember when you could never draft a Patriots WR high? It did work last year and it worked for two, but if you believe Brady will have fewer TDs, so won’t Moss, and if you believe he is a target they will take away, you really need to adjust Moss. He will still get his catches and his TDs, but he will also disappear in some games, just like last year.
3. Terrell Owens (ADP 12.9) - Owens is the second WR to go and he’s got enough history that we know what his upside is and we know what his downsides can be. There is a large number of young WRs trending towards the best Owens has ever done and they are still trending upwards, so could do better than his best and they are going later.
4. Steve Smith (ADP 23.1) - Smith is still being drafted high based on 2005 numbers. He was good the past two years, but he hasn’t put up numbers that satisfy the owner where he’s been drafted. Colston had similar 2006 numbers as a rookie, much better 2007 numbers and is entering the traditional 3rd year breakout season for WRs, but is being picked on average after Smith. Smith is entering a year with a QB trying to recover from an injury no QB has ever successfully recovered from, without a good backup, and a more talented set of receivers, that could take some catches away. Too many question marks that point to a potential dip in numbers, not increase.

Cedric Benson was waived by the Chicago Bears today.  The news was expected after Benson was arrested for the second time this offseason.   The news solidifies rookie Matt Forte’s position as the starting RB entering the season.   I have moved Forte up the list slightly.  I anticipated Forte winning the job over Benson, but the fact that Benson is now out of the picture helps by eliminating any threat of Benson getting carries.  Benson dropped from his already low ranking. Some team could take a chance on him, but the alcohol-related arrests and his less than spectacular performance doesn’t make him an appealing option. Chicago’s Adrian Peterson also gets a slight boost with the news.

Michael Strahan announced his retirement today.  This obviously hurts the Giants defense some, but with Justin Tuck moving out to Strahan’s position, they will still have a great pass rush.  I move them down just a spot with the news.

Travis Henry was released by the Denver Broncos yesterday.  I have nearly dropped him off my rankings because I’m not sure he’ll sign on anywhere.  People are calling into question his dedication, he’s had character issues, and there are other veterans available that teams would consider before him (Alexander, K. Jones).  Selvin Young now becomes a legitimate fantasy RB option.  I have moved him up quite a bit, but I still wonder if he’ll get goal line carries.  I have also added Ryan Torain to the list since some think he may be in line to be the goal line back.  I don’t expect Michael Pittman to have a large enough role to have a fantasy impact.

I’ve played in a lot of different leagues. Guys who show up to a draft with a cheat sheet from a magazine are usually not going to be tough competition. The obvious reason is the cheat sheets within are months old. Even if I see the most up to date cheat sheet taken from a web site, I often don’t worry because some people put too much faith into cheat sheets without thinking about how the rankings fit into their league.

The average cheat sheet usually takes into consideration player projections applied to a very basic scoring system. For the average player, this works for the most part. If you play in a keeper or dynasty league, you should find more appropriate cheat sheets or make adjustments to a standard cheat sheet. If your league uses a playoff system, take into consideration the strength of schedule of your players during those critical weeks. If your league plays in week 17, take into consideration that very good teams may be resting their players. Quarterbacks getting 6 or 4 points per touchdown is a common factor to watch. Points per reception league alter rankings.

Depending if you use wins-losses, cummulative points, or some other scoring system player consistency can work for or against you. One league I play in is a lazy man league that doesn’t set lineups, you count the best lineup from the team, so players who are inconsistent, but capable of big weeks can be good to have. Last year, Bobby Engram and Kevin Curtis both had 1100+ yards with 6 TDs. Engram had 9 games where he had 8 or more fantasy points and only 1 game where he scored more than 18. Curtis had only 4 games where he had 8 or more fantasy points, but 2 with more than 18 points and 1 where he had more than 28. It was tough to rely on Curtis in most fantasy leagues, but he is a type of player I target in this league in later rounds because he is capable of a big week and that 28 points helped win the week in that league.

Knowing the scoring system and rules of your league can be as important as knowing the players and using someone else’s cheat sheet without taking into consideration your league rules will not result in success. The rules may change the list just slightly, but if you draft LT first in a new keeper league, you are saying you want to be marginally better this year, while leaving Adrian Peterson for 2nd pick who may dominate for several years because of his age.

I am new to this blogging business and other than building my own cheat sheets for drafts, which I usually do pretty roughly, doing a comprehensive set of player rankings is also a new experience for me. For those of you who haven’t looked at my about page or haven’t noticed the links, I have links to these rankings above and my aim of this blog is to focus on news that affect the rankings and adjust them accordingly and to have you comment on the rankings and give me reasons to update them. I have my opinions, but everyone has different points of view, and your point of view could change my opinion and rankings.

The problem is I read little things that aren’t really worth highlighting here, but over time change my opinion about players. I was listening to the podcast over at fantasyfootballgoat.com and realized I completely left Sammy Morris off my Running Back list.  I went in to edit the list and now I want to argue with myself because I don’t like where I have some players ranked.  I was hoping to justify everything I change, but I guess it doesn’t always work that way, so the list may change from time to time without justification.  I also think I will add a last updated line on each ranking list, so you know when I have done a review and tweaked things.  Any other ideas?

The news out of Oakland since the end of last year has taught me that Al Davis and Lane Kiffin just don’t see eye to eye. I think Davis wants Kiffin gone, but won’t pay to make it happen and Kiffin wants out, but won’t give up his money to break ties either. Kiffin was clear prior to the draft, RB (McFadden) wasn’t a priority, but Davis liked McFadden and that is who they picked. They have since cut Dominic Rhodes and Lamont Jordan might not be far behind. Kiffin came out this week and said he’s opening up the competition and Michael Bush might be the best of the pack. How confident can any fantasy owner be in drafting any of the Oakland RBs outside of McFadden in a keeper league? Could Kiffin seriously give Bush a shot? Could he do it out of spite? I had high hopes for Bush, but given the resigning of Fargas and the drafting of McFadden I gave up on that idea. Now he seems like an intriguing late pick.

Dominic Rhodes signed a one year deal with the Colts. This news gives him a considerable boost and Kenton Keith a substantial drop in the rankings. It is unclear how the backup role to Addai will play out, but it looks like Rhodes and Hart will be in the mix. I actually am going to drop Addai a couple spots as well because it looks like he could lose a little playing time as well.

Many thought Julius Jones would be the primary back in Seattle, but reports since my original rankings suggest there will be much more of a committee, so I have dropped Jones some.

On Draft day, many thought Kevin Smith wouldn’t fit in with the Detroit offense, but it has since been reported that Detorit runs the same offense that Smith ran in during college. I have dropped Tatum Bell and increased Kevin Smith’s ranking.

Shaun Alexander, Marvin Harrison, Michael Strahan, and Chad Johnson have all been in the news and should be watched to see how their situations might affect their rankings.

Lions select Kevin Smith RB - I have dropped Smith based on this selection. Normally, Detroit taking a RB would add value, but I’m not sure Smith fits the Detroit offense.  Tatum Bell may have significant value this year.

Chiefs select Jamaal Charles RB - Charles’ value takes a big hit with this selection.  I had him ranked fairly high, but he joins a crowded backfield, so he should struggle to see the field.

Giants select Mario Manningham WR - Manningham could have a lot of value down the road, but he’ll probably fight for playing time this year.

Colts select Mike Hart RB - Hart slipped some, but with Kenton Keith’s recent troubles, he could have some decent value in Indy.